COLOMBO: The widely expected fall of the Tamil Tigers’ political capital would mark the separatists’ biggest loss in 13 years, analysts say, but add Sri Lanka’s drawn-out ethnic conflict is far from over. Government forces say they are steadily advancing on the town of Kilinochchi in an offensive that began over a year ago.

The Tigers, who are known for their trademark suicide attacks, have put up only intermittent resistance to the military forces advancing on several fronts in the northern part of Sri Lanka known as the Wanni.

The capture of Kilinochchi would be a major blow to the Tigers, who set up the town as the capital of their mini-state after taking the area from government forces 10 years ago.

The rebels have not suffered such a setback since December 1995 when they lost the northern peninsula of Jaffna, which they considered their cultural capital. Retired army Brigadier-General Vipul Boteju said the success of the latest military campaign appeared to be due to the use of small groups along a broad front.

Past attempts to take Kilinochchi using large columns of soldiers had failed because the Tigers deployed suicide bombers against them.

But a defence analyst who asked not to be named said the Tigers still had suicide attackers who could be deployed with devastating effect.

“(The) Tigers could be facing the biggest defeat since 1995, but you can’t ignore their ability to carry out suicide attacks,” the analyst said. “We have not come to the end of the war.”

He noted that the government itself was bracing for more fighting next year by allocating a record 177 billion rupees for defence in 2009, up from 166 billion rupees in 2008.

The Tamil Tigers took up arms in 1972, demanding minority rights, and in 1976 raised the demand for a separate state called Eelam. They have shown in the past that they can bounce back from defeat and turn the tables on the military. Barely six months after government troops captured the Jaffna peninsula in 1995, the Tigers overran a military base in the north-eastern district of Mullaittivu, killing more than 1,200 soldiers.

The guerrillas also reversed military gains of 19 months in a matter of five days in November 1999, dislodging the military from their Elephant Pass base at the entrance to the Jaffna peninsula.

Tamil sources say the guerrillas may now retreat towards the jungles of Mullaittivu, the main hideout of their 53-year-old leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. The Tigers still control both Elephant Pass and Mullaittivu.

Asian diplomats have also warned the Tigers may fall back to the jungles and return to hit-and-run attacks against government forces to prolong the conflict, the longest running in the region.

A Norwegian-brokered peace agreement ended in failure despite both sides agreeing in December 2003 to work towards turning Sri Lanka into a federal state.

Fighting across the northern frontier on Saturday left at least 25 Tigers and five soldiers dead, the defence ministry said on Sunday.

The Colombo government formally revoked a moribund truce in January and since then, 7,183 Tigers have been killed, according to the military, which places its own losses at 702 soldiers. The casualty figures cannot be independently verified.

Many observers now argue that a power-sharing deal is essential to address the grievances of the minority Tamils, while the military deals with the Tigers.

“As much as you need to crush the Tigers, you must also have a political package ready for the Tamils,” said Boteju. Dharmalingam Sithadthan, a former Tamil rebel turned politician, also believes the government should bypass the Tigers and negotiate directly with the country’s minority Tamil population.

“We have been saying repeatedly that a political solution must be offered to the Tamils, not the Tigers,” he said.